The Still Uncertain Road for the Next U.S. President

Americans are about to vote for the next president of the United States in a few hours. Who will emerge as the winner is still uncertain, as polls from different countries and organizations show that the battle is still almost even.

The uncertainty is affecting many aspects of life in the U.S. It is affecting the USD across the board. Of late, its seems that the Democratic candidate will definitely win.

A win for the Democrats will provide support for risk sentiment and the USD and seen to have a negative effect for the JPY and the EUR, both considered as safe havens. Foreign exchange volatility could go down with a pro-Democratic result.

On the other hand, a victory for Trump is seen as a non-negligible tail risk. It can lead investors to be very cautious as it will bring forward fears of an unrestrained U.S. economic uncertainty and protectionism. In reality, the results of the U.S. presidential election have a worldwide effect on the financial and economic front.

Views from outside

Elsewhere, the uncertainty looming over the U.S. elections establishes the fact that America is very polarized. Trump’s campaign showed that a respectable minority  of Americans believe that Washington is a cistern of the corrupt. Political correspondents and analysts believe that many Americans are tired of democratic, conventional politics. They are people who want radical change that will happen almost overnight.

The BBC Polls show that Clinton and Trump are even at 45% at the time of this writing. Their data is collected from Real Clear Politics, a polling resource website, which collated data from various news organizations in the U.S.

Early voting

In most states in the U.S. early voting took place and some states have already released data on the early votes and the number of registered Democrats and Republican voters. Nevada, for example had close to 800,000 votes cast on November 4. The state has 36% registered Republicans and 42% registered Democrats. But this is not an indication of who actually voted for Donald Trump or for Hilary Clinton.

The Hispanic community will have a great effect in swaying the votes, especially in the states of North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Arizona. In previous elections, the Hispanic community backed Republican candidates, but in the wake of Mr. Trump’s harsh rhetoric on Mexicans and immigration, it is foreseen that they will be supporting Mrs. Clinton. The FBI probe on the other hand lowered Mrs. Clinton’s appeal, not by much but it is still noticeable.

It is clear however that many more Americans turned out to participate in the early voting. In 2012, around 32 million early votes were cast. For 2016, the number of early voters increased to 40 million.

Many polls show Mrs. Clinton leading at 51% whereas Mr. Trump rarely reaches 45%. Analysts are saying that support for Mr. Trump has a high floor but low ceiling, with the polls showing that he has a difficult time attracting voters beyond his loyal base.

As election day nears, Mr. Trump continues to accuse polling companies of being tremendously dishonest but has yet to provide evidence to prove his claim. There are no indications that any of the national polls has been in favor of any candidate.

While there is so much news coverage on the campaign trails of Mrs. Clinton and Donald Trump, there are other  presidential candidates, one of which could be a surprise winner. Other candidates include Jill Stein (Green Party), Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party) and Evan McMullin (Independent).

Copyright: delcreations / 123RF Stock Photo